FRIDAY, Sept. 10, 2021 (HealthDay News) — The number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in U.S. nursing homes appears to have been grossly underestimated.
According to a new study, that’s because U.S. federal guidelines did not require nursing homes to report cases and deaths until May 24, 2020, months after the pandemic began.
“Because of the delay in the federal reporting system for cases and deaths in nursing homes, there were roughly 68,000 unreported cases and 16,000 unreported deaths from COVID-19 in the early months of the pandemic,” said lead researcher Karen Shen, an applied public and labor economist at Harvard University.
“Accounting for underreporting changes the understanding of the toll on nursing homes across places and across facilities,” she added.
For instance, using the reported figures without factoring in the delay implies similar numbers of nursing home residents died in New York (5,776) and California (5,622), or about 5 deaths for every 100 beds in both states, Shen said.
After the unreported deaths had been accounted for, however the figures dramatically changed, she stated.
“We estimate that nursing homes in New York experienced 9,276 deaths [8 deaths per 100 beds], compared with 6,487 in California [5.5 deaths per 100 beds],” Shen said.
The delay in federal reporting had a significant impact on the nursing home count. Shen stated that data should be interpreted with caution or corrected.
” We would also like to see a quicker and more precise data collection in the future, which would help avoid some of this confusion.” she said.
For the new study, Shen and colleagues compared COVID cases and deaths reported to the U.S. National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) and state health departments by May 31, 2020.
The sample included numbers for 20 states and nearly 12,000 nursing homes. Researchers expanded these data to include more than 15,000 nursing homes nationwide.
On average, 44% of COVID cases and 40% of deaths were reported to state health departments, but not to the NHSN, the study found.
That suggests more than 68,600 cases and more than 16,600 deaths were not reported to NHSN.
Shen stated that these numbers may not reflect all unreported COVID deaths and cases in nursing homes.
” There may be other sources of undercounting such as facilities not reporting deaths or not knowing cause of death.” Shen stated. “But I don’t know enough to guess how large that undercount will be. “
The new research was published online Sept. 9 in JAMA Network Open.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Marc Siegel of NYU Langone Medical Center in New York City was not surprised by the undercounts.
Infection can spread like wildfire in nursing homes, said Siegel, who wasn’t part of the study. Nursing homes don’t have the same precautions as hospitals.
“People in nursing homes tend to be high risk because they’re run-down, they have underlying problems, and are at high risk of this virus,” he said. It is not surprising that nursing home deaths and cases were underreported. “
At time of study, Siegel said that there was no vaccine against COVID. He said that it was important that all nursing home employees get their shots.
“Vaccine is so important, and to find out that the health care workers in nursing homes are not fully vaccinated is very disturbing,” Siegel said. You need to be tested frequently, and you need isolation. It’s simple, but not done correctly. “
The Biden administration announced Aug. 18 that nursing home staffers must be vaccinated against COVID as a condition for the facilities to receive federal Medicare and Medicaid funding.
To learn more about nursing homes and COVID-19 deaths, visit the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
SOURCES: Karen Shen, PhD, applied public and labor economist, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. ; Marc Siegel, MD, clinical professor, medicine, NYU Langone Medical Center, New York City; JAMA Network Open, Sept. 9, 2021, online
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